Archive for October, 2009

About OTC Currency Options

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Mutual or bilateral contracts can be other name for the OTC (Over the Counter) Currency options. The value of this can be obtained from a value of some other underlying property, asset or security. The derivative that can be used has to be certain contract where there are no movement or fluidity of the principle amount .Also here the performance of the price of the Derivative itself is decided solely depending upon the cost of the underlying asset.

Thus for the purpose of carrying about a specialized risk assessment and management the derivatives can be a useful tool in Forex market. It is because of the aforesaid feature (the principle being stable) that the derivatives can be fruitfully used.

The Forex derivatives can be of the following: • Currency Options • Forex Futures • Swaps and Forwards

Derivatives of Foreign Exchange can be bought or sold over the counter or also over any renowned organized exchanges in Forex market – A constant and approved contracts are bought and sold on the organized exchanges. The OTC (Over the Counter) can be fixed and customized according to the trader’s preferences about the specific dates, the type of currencies and the total amount incurred.

There remains a credit danger though and it can be said to be the major difference between Forex derivatives and OTC. Each party involved is given a risk from the other one and on a particular exchange; the exchange’s clearing house covers up for the other parties’ risk. As in the OTC the contract details there is low liquidity and as a result it is not that regular to deal with such instrument if one does not come across the right party to do the transactions with. One has to be very careful, while selecting a party to deal with.

We cannot undermine the future exchange transactions. Here is where we can make full use of the currency option. This gives the holder an opportunity to fix the rate chosen by the holder himself. An Option writer is employed to guarantee the rate which has been chosen by the holder. A fee is charged for this assurance though.

Apart from the compulsion of paying the fee the holder of the option has access to all the rights implicit to the option.

If the holder of the system wishes to apply his option of choosing the favour from the option writer he can. The Option writer or seller is liable to all the obligations, but can enjoy no rights. He has to be prepared with currency or fund whenever the holder asks for in favour of the fees he is being paid.

One advantage of the Currency Options is that they can be executed even after expiry. If the holder wishes they can be sold back or transferred to another person at any time. So they can change hands during the course of duration of the deal that is going on and then procure a good value for it. This in turn depends on the underlying price movements involved. The currency options trade as such can be delivered personally as and when required.

We can ask for more from the Currency option scheme

Daily Review 30/10/2009

Friday, October 30th, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar fell against most of its counterparts after better than expected GDP increased investor\’s appetite for risk. The Gross Domestic Product was released at 3.5% vs. the 3.1% expected. Initial Jobless Claims came out slightly worse than expected at 530K. After 4 straight days of drops Wall Street headed for a steep rise after the GDP showed that the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% annual pace in the 3Q and fueled stocks. Dow Jones jumped by 2.05% to 9,963 and the NASDAQ rose by 1.84%. Crude oil jumped by 3.19% closing at 79.93$ a barrel as the surprising US economy expansion signaled for a potential increase in oil demand. Gold (XAU) trades at $1,047. Today, Personal Spending is expected at -0.4% vs. 1.3% previously and Employment Cost Index is expected unchanged at 0.4%.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro continued towards its fourth monthly rise against the Dollar as the U.S.’s return to growth renewed optimism a global recovery will quicken, aiding demand for higher-yielding assets. German Unemployment Change came out better than expected at -26K vs. expected 15K. European markets rose more than 1%. Commodities recovered from previous losses and posted important gains. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and with a high of 1.4857. Today, European CPI Index is expected at -0.1% vs. -0.3% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4830

Resistance

1.4880

1.4925

1.4970

Support

1.4770

1.4720

1.4680

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound climbed against the Dollar for a fourth day after reports showed U.K. mortgage approvals increased more than forecast last month and the U.S. returned to growth in the third quarter. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6337 and with a high of 1.6602. Today, Nationwide Housing Price Index is expected at 0.7% vs. 0.9% previously.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6560

Resistance

1.6640

1.6700

1.6765

Support

1.6475

1.6410

1.6350

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese currency fell during the European session and continued its plunge after the release of a government report that showed Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped for a second month, reducing demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.24 and with a high of 91.60. Today, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Press Conference is expected. The interest rate is expected unchanged at 0.1%.

USD/JPY-Last: 91.30

Resistance

91.80

92.20

92.30

Support

91.05

90.83

90.50

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar climbed from a 3 week low against the Dollar as stocks and commodities rallied after the US GDP report showed the American economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in a year. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0654 and with a high of 1.0820. Today, Canada\’s The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected at 0.1% vs. 0% previously.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0670

Resistance

1.0750

1.0820

1.0865

Support

1.0630

1.0585

1.0545

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

Currency Options Offer Endless Profit

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Currency options in currency trading have unlimited profit possibilities and minimal risk. If applied to full use it can give you an edge and power, but the art needs to be mastered.

A whole lot of Forex Currency Traders do mistakes, so you have to grasp the concept first. Know how to use the currency trading options. We will strictly discuss about the plans to a successful trading by increasing your odds. Let us not say about the currency options as the internet itself abounds in such information. Do not get carried away by the Potential Rewards. First thing a trader needs to think over when purchasing the option is how much time is required, and the strike price that will be best for it. The potential losses get overlooked mostly and get masked by the potential profits available.

These Forex Currency Traders do the mistake of buying strike prices way too far and Currency options which are nearing to expiry dates.

By which way can You Increase the Odds of Success?

Two points are important here:

1. Expiry time of the option stated

2. The decided strike price

Keeping time in hand is very important. Buy strike prices not very high compared to the money. It has to be either of the “in the money” or “at the money” option.

This way even if your profit percentage does not go high but the risk factors will be considerably reduced.

Your option has to trade the money and that too by the expiry date. So it is not only about dealing with your money your own way regarding when you bought it.

Suppose a Forex trader checks that the pound has been doing rounds at 1.70 and buys a 1.90 call. The price shifts towards the path they thought and reaches 1.87 – but then they are short of time and the option dies out in a worthless condition. This is very frequent in the Forex Market – prices all scale in the right way, but the trader makes no profit in this process anyway. But this does not mean that if you think you are nearly close, it will help you in the long run to reap something productive. It does not help you make money in the long run.

To win in the Forex Market and make some good money one needs to buy in the money options itself with plenty of time value in store so that you can trade according to the market demands. This helps you increase odds to yourself and hence your chances.

When in the longer-term trend, place according to the following steps :

. Technically scrutinize the long term trends to identify with them.

. To take a strong position wait for the currency rate fall.

. Look for affirmation with stochastic crossovers, or other momentum tools to study the currency dip.

. An intelligent way great way of buying options in the long-term trend is to check out for dips amidst of a Bollinger band to time entry. This is a strongly recommended instrument in strongly trending the markets. If you can apply these simple to follow strategies you will soon make big profits out of it. Odds will be on your side, there will surely be maximum benefits with the minimum risks of failures in the arena of currency trend following. And eventually you will be successful. Traders who are naive and new to trading often make the mistake of not using the time properly. Time management is very important. Keep the strikes in and near the money’s reach and soon long term gains will be your.

GoLearnForex Daily Technical Analysis

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

AUD/USD:

The AUD continues its recent retrace.  Many traders use different time frames for different currency pairs.  The longer the time frame the more valid the pattern you are charting is.  Moving Averages are basic tool that even the most sophisticated trader needs to always be cognizant of.  The markets tend follow the moving averages generated off of the daily charts.

In Chart below I use a moving average from an 8 hour chart.  I strongly encourage traders to be vigilant of at least checking a weekly, daily, 8 and or 4 hour chart and then any time frame less than 4 hours that you may want to look at.

INSERT CHART

You can see that the yellow line representing the SMA 50 was breeched and prices continued a steady fall (The Red line is the 100 SMA).  There are also a number of near candle formations that support this price depreciation.

Circled in blue is a near Falling Three Candle pattern.  Typically you have a red candle followed by 3 or so small green candles that are contained by the original red candle.  Following the last green candle is another red candle with price closing below the original red.  The Falling Three pattern is nearly followed by Three Black Crows.  This candle pattern forms when you have the candles each open in the midsection of the proceeding candle but also close lower than the proceeding candle.  This pattern nearly forms between the 2 white lines.

GBP/USD:

This pair has been range bound since May.  When a pair trades in a range, price is confined to a narrow margin of highs and lows.  In the Chart below the 2 red lines represent the range support and resistance lines.

The 2 red boxes indicate when minor breakouts have occurred.  The tops and bottoms of the boxes would be your absolute stops depending on the handle you entered the trade at.  Another point of consideration is the 50 SMA and 100 SMA.  You can see that the SMA’s are also moving sideways.  Price typically pops when it passes above/below a significant SMA.  With SMA moving into a sideways march we are approaching congestion on this pair and that should signal another breakout.  Obviously if the dollar continues to strengthen as it has GBP should be headed south.

INSERT CHART


Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

Trading Options in Forex Market

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Forex investors are in constant search for newer and better Forex options for making more and more money. The world of investments and trade are full of opportunities. One of most lucrative options would be trading options. This can be regarded as a fruitful decision to make good and easy money. For a beginner, though, it would be advisable to familiarize himself with the dos and don’ts of the stock options. One can also gain enough knowledge by reading thoroughly about the stock options to get into the nitty-gritty of it before trying his luck in trading options.

It is very much essential to have sufficient amount of knowledge about the stock options, or else a hefty amount of loss can be incurred within no time of making the initial investment. On the other complete and correct information can bring in huge profits. So it’s mandatory to be knowledgeable about the trading options before placing your foot in the big world of trading options to take full advantage of it. To start with learn about the technicalities and jargons of the trade. This way you will be able to relate to the broker better and also win his trust. In return he will want to give you concrete tips on Forex trading. As a result you will be benefited and make more money.

Then again, getting into the trading options just for the sake of it is stupid. Your intentions should clear from the very day you step into it. There are three steps of trading. They are investing, speculation and then come trading. Trading options being a long term scheme, investing it would not be the correct option as they have a definite life span. Their value keeps decreasing as they approach the expiry dates. Most of the contracts do expire within a year.

There are two distinct types of Forex options trading. If one is not able to distinguish between them it can result utter chaos and unavoidable loss of entire amount. The options are calls and puts respectively. According to the call option the owner can buy 100 shares of a stock on a predetermined date irrespective of the stock’s market price. Hence the buyer can have the advantage of buying the stock at price way too lesser then the actual market price. On the contrary the put option allows the Forex investor to sell 100 shares at a price he decides. So herein the owner can be prepared for the drop in price by fixing a minimum sale price so that he never suffers immense loss and his investment is secure.

Daily Review

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar rose across the board. A rise in risk aversion following an unexpectedly drop in New Home Sales sent stocks lower worldwide. The Dow Jones fell for the 4th consecutive session and ended at 9,763.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2% on concern a rally in equities this year outpaced the prospects for economic growth. New-home sales unexpectedly fell last month to an annual rate of 402K, from a revised 417K pace in August. Crude oil fell from $79 a barrel to $77.20 on stronger Dollar. Gold (XAU) continues to move away from the highs of the year and fell to test levels below $1,030 an ounce. Today, The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected at 3.1% vs. -0.7% previously. The Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 520K vs. 531K previously.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro kept weakening versus the Dollar for the 4th day in a row. The currency slumped against Dollar and Yen, reaching a 2 week low against both safe havens. The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out as expected at 0.1%. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4690 and with a high of 1.4840. Today, The German Unemployment Change is expected with 15K vs. -12K previously. The German Unemployment Rate is expected at 8.3% vs. 8.2% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4700

Resistance

1.48

1.4842

1.489

Support

1.471

1.4675

1.465

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound failed to hold above 1.6400 versus the Dollar finding support only at 1.6360 following economic data in the U.S and Dollar\’s strength. GBP/USD peaked at the highest price for the current week but it was unable to hold versus the strengthening Dollar. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6285 and with a high of 1.6466. Today, Net Lending to individuals is expected unchanged at 0.7B. The Mortgage Approvals also expected unchanged at 52K.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6368

Resistance

1.651

1.6575

1.6640

Support

1.6355

1.6285

1.6240

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen rose sharply versus most majors as weak economic data sent world stocks lower fueling risk aversion. The Yen reached the highest in 2 weeks against the Euro amid signs the global economic recovery is losing steam, damping demand for higher-yielding assets. Industrial Production came out 1.4%better than 1.1% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.54 and with a high of 91.80. Today, Household Spending is expected lower with 1.2% versus 2.6% and Tokyo Core CPI is expected with -2.0% versus -2.1% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 90.42

Resistance

91.3

91.75

92.1

Support

90.5

90.1

89.9

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Canada’s currency depreciated against its U.S. counterpart to the lowest level in more than three weeks as declines in crude oil, the nation’s largest export, and stocks damped demand for higher-yielding assets. Overall, USDCAD traded with a low of 1.0636 and with a high of 1.0810. Today, The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected at 1% vs. 3.7% previously.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0790

Resistance

1.08

1.0855

1.0898

Support

1.068

1.063

1.0587

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

Two different types of FOREX options

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

I suppose that Most of us are very much familiar with the terms like cash or Spot in FOREX market where currency is purchased and sold out. Generally we know a little less about the market of FOREX options where it is really very possible that you trade a particular FOREX options in order to make a specific amount of profit or loss. In the very big FOREX market of cash, when you purchase or sell out some specific currency, then you will be having an obligation of two things. These two things are either you take the option of delivery and that is at the time when you buy, or the option is that you give delivery and that happens at the time of selling. This particular type of obligation, which is contract based is having characteristics of proper absoluteness and binding.

In FOREX market where options are traded, there are two different kinds of trading options that are available in the market with which you can actually make a successful trade. Either trading option gives you all your rights, but it is not necessary that you have an obligation which is based on contract. I know it must be really difficult for you to understand so I am trying to make you understand in much simpler way. In other words, you can actually choose between two trading options. The first one is that either you can exercise your trading option or the second option that is available to you is that you can let it reach the date of expiry without even using it. In the market of FOREX options a Put option provides you all the rights but it doesn’t provide you the obligation to sell out whereas a Call option is the one that gives you all the rights but not the obligation to purchase. These two options that are Call and put options can be actually of two kinds. In an American-style trading option, the option which is to be traded can be exercised at any point of time up to the date of expiry at your own discretion. In the European style of trading option, the option that has to be traded can only be exercised on the date of expiry.

Now I would like to quote an example for this that will make you understand in a much clear way. You purchase a single lot of Euro/ USD at a fixed price of around 1.4000. And this is also known as a Euro call / USD put. If on the date of expiry, the price is almost around1.3500, you just simply let the trading option get expire without even utilizing it.

GoLearnForex Daily Technical Analysis

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

USD/CAD:

We have noted several times a formation we refer to as a Step pattern.  More commonly this is identified by Lower Lows and Lower Highs and vice versa.  We picked up on this pattern emerging on a 4 hours chart.  We identified the possible start of this pattern shortly after the BOC  publicly declared it’s sentiment for a “weak Canadian Dollar”.  We assured you that there would still be time to catch this move even if you could not trade the actual news.

We suggested that you wait for the Step to appear and buy on the dip which was a confirmation of our pattern formation. On the graph that it is depicted near the 3 and a yellow circle. The exit for taking PNL we had at 1.0660 a prior support resistance point.

INSERT GRAPH

EUR/USD:

The Squeeze Play.  We talked about this move where we are seemingly forced into a breakout.  In one of our earlier pieces we mentioned that our experience told us not to bet on the Squeeze Play, meaning trade against the direction of the existing trend.  I must admit we got carried away by the hoopla of crossing 1.50.

So the question you all should pose” is why in this case do you bet against the trend when one of the number one rules of technicians is never bet against the trend”.  The answer is based on the number two rule of technicians and that is; trade for the outcome that has the highest statistical probability of occurring.  To explain this further lets pose a question.  Why didn’t the market make this move a while ago similar to the recent strong moves in CHF  & AUD?

INSERT CHART

The answer is the Strength of the move was deteriorating in advance of 1.50.  Every trader had their   eye on  1.50, but obviously no one was a real buyer (for now) otherwise at 1.4830 when momentum started to stall we would have had traders continuing to bid up the EUR.  Lastly, when price action was negligible on the big cross of 1.50 that should have been another tip that there were no big orders lined up to continue buying north of 1.50.

We added  a MACD to indicate when the momentum started to wane. There are number of overbought tools on your platforms that you can use, from Stochastics and Oscillators to something as simple as the RSI.


Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

Daily Review

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar strengthen during yesterday trading session as Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in October for a second month. The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 47.7 from a revised 53.4 in September. NASDAQ decreased by 1.2% and Dow Jones slightly rose by 0.14%. Crude oil rose by 1% closing at 79.55$ a barrel after a volatile trading session as investors wait for the oil inventories today. Gold (XAU) weakened by 0.7% closed at 1035.4$ an ounce. Today, Core Durable Goods Orders are expected at 0.6% vs. -0.3% prior, New Home Sales are expected to rise from 429K to 443K.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro weakened versus the Dollar for the third day in a row on concern a rally in stocks and commodities can’t be sustained. M3 Money Supply came out worse than expected at 1.8% vs. 2.1% forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4770 and with a high of 1.4926. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.1% vs.-0.4% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4811

Resistance

1.4824

1.4927

1.5046

Support

1.4770

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound strengthened against the Dollar after the Confederation of British Industry\’s distributive trade\’s survey reported sales balance rose to +8 in October from +3 in September, better than economists\’ forecasts of a rise to +5. This is the fastest pace of growth since December 2007. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6285 and with a high of 1.6438. No economic data expected today.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6358

Resistance

1.6438

1.6636

1.6693

Support

1.6286

1.6250

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen rose against the Dollar for the first time in 6 days as a plunge in Treasury yields after the record $44 billion auction in two-year notes made the Dollar less attractive to Japanese investors. USD/JPY traded with a low of 91.70 and with a high of 92.32. Retail sales came out at -1.4% vs. -1.5% forecast. No economic data expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 91.18

Resistance

91.57

92.19

92.32

Support

90.77

90.48

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar appreciated from a three-week low, gaining for the first time in four days amid speculation its decline was too big to be sustained after it reached a key technical level. Overall, USDCAD traded with a low of 1.0626 and with a high of 1.0716. Today, BOC Gov Carney Speaks.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0664

Resistance

1.0696

1.0717

Support

1.0630

1.0500

1.0450

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

Trading options

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Volatility is the thing which is really very important for all the traders because as you all know that everything happens on a very fast pace in the market of trading and it’s really very important to move or take out all your money before they get expire. Unfortunately most of the traders are not able to visualize or see the direction of market on right time and that is the reason their timing is not at all synchronized with the ongoing signals of trading. In most of the cases these trader spot the right direction in which price is moving, so at that particular time they stop but as soon as the trading trend goes up they make an assumption that now there’s nothing left or there’s nothing which can be done so they loose all their hopes and end up loosing all their hard earned money. The options of currency always have the power to change all that because they are perfectly fine with all your swings which come for short span of time and they will be the ones who will always keep you in the market trend. It’s really very attractive but you should always remember that up to a specific percentage that is 90%, the options expire itself and then you would not be able to do anything about that. As you all know that every game has its good way as well as its bad way. It totally depends on us that which way we choose in order to finish our game. In the same way, this game also has its good ways and bad ways in order to play with these trading options. Now let’s see that what are the good ways and what re the bad ways.

The Wrong or the bad Way chosen for trading

Before the time of your option expires, most of the traders think of buying cheap at the options of away from their price of strike and the only result that comes is never in their favor, which means they lose all their money which is invested. That’s the only reason why it’s being so cheap. You have to be really very careful about the decay of time because all the options of trading expire really very fast. And you know all these traders keep on repeating their mistake again and again.

The Right or the good Way for trading

Obviously, you all know that the right way to buy options of currency is situated exactly at the opposite side of the equator as compared to the one mentioned above. It’s always recommended that you purchase your currency options in the money or at the money.